CNY ecoBlog

Sean Kirst asks whether the recent annual recurrence of January thaws is a sign of global warming or simply part of the natural variability of our upstate winters. The answer is both: as a singular event a warm winter spell or even a entire warm winter season is not outside the realm of natural variability. But looking at seasonal trends in the aggregate, anthropogenic global warming suggests that statistically, Northeast winters should experience an increase in extreme warming events. This is especially the case when additional warming factors such as El Nino are in play; this point was made in detail at Real Climate in response to last year’s anomalous winter:

...one cannot attribute a specific meteorological event, an anomalous season, or even…two anomalous seasons in a row, to climate change…But one can argue that the pattern of anomalous winter warmth seen last year, and so far this year, is in the direction of what the models predict.

In reality, the individual roles of deterministic factors such as El Nino, anthropogenic climate change, and of purely random factors (i.e. “weather”) in the pattern observed thus far this winter cannot even in principle be ascertained. What we do know, however, is that both anthropogenic climate change and El Nino favor, in a statistical sense, warmer winters over large parts of the U.S. When these factors act constructively, as is the case this winter, warmer temperatures are certainly more likely. Both factors also favor warmer global mean surface temperatures (the warming is one or two tenths of a degree C for a moderate to strong El Nino)....

Coincidentally I’ve just began reading “Storm World” which documents the scientific controversy surrounding global warming and hurricane prediction. The author, Chris Mooney, recently commented on his disappointment “with the way that some environmental advocates indefensibly exploit individual events to make a case about global warming.” But at the same time he stresses:

When it comes to wildfires, or hurricanes, or droughts, or many other weather related phenomena [like a January thaw], there is strong published research suggesting that global warming ought to be changing these events in some way in the aggregate, even if we can’t detect such changes in any individual occurrence (for basic statistical reasons). This research makes it more than fair to at least raise the subject of climate change when such events occur — with the appropriate caveats, of course.

An editorial in Artvoice discusses some salient themes for economic development in Buffalo and Upstate New York that will be the focus of an upcoming conference on September 27-28 in downtown Buffalo called “The High Road Runs Through the City.” The essay begins with some surprising news to me at least that Buffalo was now according to the federal government the second poorest city in the nation (here’s an alternative news source WNED News). Here are some of the main speakers and brief summary of their ideas on economic development from the editorial:

The keynote speaker is global warming activist and author Bill McKibben, whose latest book, Deep Economy, argues for economies built not on growth but on sustainability, not on globalization but on localism, not on “more” but on “better.” Other speakers include Patricia Smith, the New York Commissioner of Labor; Jen Kern, the nation’s leading living wage advocate; and J. Phillip Thompson III, whose book Double Trouble explores the dilemmas of African-American mayors in impoverished cities.

Greg LeRoy, another speaker, is the founder of Good Jobs First and the author of The Great American Jobs Scam, which argues persuasively that states and cities are wasting enormous resources by offering tax subsidies to big corporations in return for promises of jobs. According to LeRoy’s extensive evidence, companies almost never base location decisions on tax subsidies; more often, they decide where they want to locate, and then milk the government for the maximum amount of subsidies by pretending to consider other locations.

The conference also features Wisconsin professor Joel Rogers, one of the inventors of the term “high road economic development,” which he defines as “high-wage, low-waste, worker-friendly, and publicly-accountable.” Rogers has written several books outlining pragmatic steps toward the high road and has organized a group of progressive mayors who are putting high road ideas to the test.

EcoVillage at Ithaca (EVI) is a local “ecovilliage” in upstate New York where residence live share in a variety of community responsibilities, attempt to maintain a sustainable, low-impact lifetyle, and present an alternative vision of suburban living. The “village currently includes two 30-home cohousing neighborhoods, an organic CSA vegetable farm, an organic berry farm, office spaces for cottage industry, an education office, a neighborhood root cellar, a warm-season grasses ecosystem restoration project, a sheep pasture, and varied natural areas. Over 80% of the 175 acre site is planned to remain green space, including 55 acres in a conservation easement held by the Finger Lakes Land Trust.Village residents share common dinners several times per week in the two Common Houses, and volunteer about 2-3 hours per week on various work teams to keep things running smoothly: outdoor maintenance, finances, governance, future projects, and more.”

Time Magazine recently profiled the community in a short article (Bryan Wlash, Sept. 6, 2007, “Green Acres”, Time Magazine) where the first thing they emphasize is that this is not a commune:

The 60 tidy homes, all duplexes to save energy, are privately owned by the residents, who pay a monthly fee for the upkeep of common buildings and future capital projects, like a shared root cellar for storing vegetables. Most of the territory is undeveloped and reserved for community space, where parents allow their kids to go free range, trusting that other villagers will be there to look out for them.

...green strategies pay genuine environmental dividends. Even though EVI is still on the electrical grid and many residents commute by car to their jobs – as far as 20 miles (about 30 km) away – the group estimates it has an ecological impact 40% smaller than that of a comparable mainstream community.

The need to cultivate a “creative class” in a region has become a recurring theme in discussions about economic development and planning in Central New York – and elsewhere. The organization “40 Below” is certainly an outgrowth of this thinking; and here is a recent article in the Albany Time-Union, “How to turn Albany into technology hub” that hits on this theme. Despite the discussion on cultivating the creative class, it remains obvious that in Central New York continues to move in a different direction. The oft cited Brooking Institute report on sprawl in Central New York, Sprawl Without Growth: The Upstate Paradox, suggests that movement from the “cool” city to the “uncool” suburb remains a dominant paradigm defining demographic patterns in Central New York.

In light of these trends I found this 3-part blog post by Bill Fulton on the California Planning & Development Report website enlightening. Fulton essentially sees the debate falling along a spectrum between Richard Florida’s The Rise of the Creative Class and LA business journalist Joel Kotkin and his defense of the “uncool” city (and by extension suburb) – the “nerdistans”. Fulton takes Kotkin to task for reducing the “creative class” to “entertainment and tourism” instead of understanding the full economic dimensions undergirding the concept. He brings up a local example:

Not long ago I was giving a speech in just about the most blue-collar city you can imagine – Buffalo – and I made the Florida argument. New York State was investing hundreds of millions of dollars in life sciences research in Buffalo in an effort to compete with Georgia, Arizona, and California in this sector of huge economic opportunity. But I pointed out that the prevalent new development pattern in Buffalo was the creation of three-acre suburban lots. I suggested that research scientists trying to cure cancer did not want to spend all weekend on a riding mower.

Afterwards, one woman came up to me and told me – in the broadest, flat-a Upstate accent you can imagine—that she works at a cancer research institute. “You’re right,” she said of the scientists. “At the end of the day all they want is a restaurant, a gym, and a loft.”

Andrew C. Revkin, a science journalist for over two decades, has a chapter The Daily Planet: Why the Media Stumble Over the Environment, from “A Field Guide for Science Writers,” that provides insight into the pitfalls of scientific journalism that might be interesting bloggers and blog readers alike. He outlines some of the “fundamental characteristics of the news process that…impede or distort environmental coverage” that could apply to any scientific reporting.

The Tyranny of the News Peg: the instinct to find the “front-page” or juiciest angle to scientific research.

The Tyranny of Balance: the need to frame scientific issues between two opposing sides no matter the scientific consensus or how far out on the fringe sides may get.

The Twin Tyrannies of Time and Space: these involve the practical concerns of a journalist (1) to meet the deadline and (2) write a story in a limited space that is understandable to a readership assumed to have limited or no background in the science matter at hand.

An finally, Heat Versus Light: the need to balance what resonates emotionally in a good news story with the cold-hard (and often boring) scientific facts behind the issue.

Good science journalism, Revkin concludes, is about writing stories that bridge the “great divide” between the scientific community and the public. This can only be achieved if the journalist is able…

...to communicate more with scientists. By getting a better feel for the breakthrough–setback rhythms of research, a reporter is less likely to forget that the state of knowledge now about endocrine disruptors or PCBs or climate is in flux. This requires using those rare quiet moments between breaking-news days…to talk to ecologists or toxicologists who aren’t on the spot because their university has just issued a press release.

A weblog can serve an important role in this regard since blogs are clearly no limited by the same institutional constraints. But this is a double-edged sword because the same lack of constraint that enables one writer to fully explore a scientific issue at the same time allows another writer to distort issues for ideological or other aims. But these are tyrannies of a a different sort

Albany’s Times-Union has an interesting blurb on the seminar “Can Upstate Cities Save Themselves?” at the Albany Institute of History and Art. Of course it boils down to redesigning our cities, the young are fleeing upstate (oh dear!), economic development, blah blah blah. Anyone even remotely familiar with the upstate blogosphere should be all-too-familiar with these “recommendations”. Not that I disagree with these assessments, I just woke up grouchy:

Finding path to upstate renewal
Cities are advised to rely on themselves, instead of on state or federal help

By ERIC ANDERSON Deputy business editor
Click byline for more stories by writer.
First published: Thursday, June 7, 2007

ALBANY —Former Milwaukee Mayor John A. Norquist had some advice Wednesday for upstate mayors seeking help from state agencies: Go home.

Norquist, now president and chief executive of Chicago-based Congress for the New Urbanism, which advocates walkable, neighborhood-based development, has little confidence in the ability of outsiders—either at the state or federal level—to help a city improve itself.

He described how state officials replaced a boulevard in Buffalo with a superhighway that cut the city off from its waterfront. “It was eviscerated by the state,” he said.

Norquist was among the speakers at the seminar “Can Upstate Cities Save Themselves?” at the Albany Institute of History and Art. The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, which advocates market solutions to urban problems, sponsored the event.

In an effort to push the Federal government to adopt more stringent mercury emission standards, New York is entering a regional pact with six New England States.

From MSNBC/AP

The state Department of Environmental Conservation has issued a draft plan intended to cut smokestack mercury emissions to the point that all New York fish are safe to eat again.

New York and six New England states — Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — are collaborating in an effort to prompt the federal government and other states to follow their lead. The draft plan is called the Northeast Regional Mercury Total Maximum Daily Load.

The states have cut their mercury emissions and discharges in the past decade by more than 70 percent, especially from incinerators, the DEC said. But since they are downwind, their waterways are also contaminated by air emissions farther west.

Also NYTimes: States Seek Tightening of Standards for Mercury.

From Wikipedia,

Pneumonia is an illness of the lungs and respiratory system in which the alveoli (microscopic air-filled sacs of the lung responsible for absorbing oxygen from the atmosphere) become inflamed and flooded with fluid…

Typical symptoms associated with pneumonia include cough, chest pain, fever, difficulty in breathing, and the inability or lack of desire to blog

A number of newspapers are reporting on a State comptrollers report on Special town districts. Statewide there are 6927 special district and 4200 local governments while New Yorkers pay some of the highest property taxes in the Nation. The implication of course is that these special districts and other inefficiencies in local government contribute to this high tax burden.

Snippets below Read the rest of this entry »

Why this appropriate to Central New York, I have no idea, but its an ode to a salt truck from Eleni Mandell.

Grab it here (before the RIAA has me arrested)

A U.K. Defra report, Environmental Impacts of Food Production and Consumption (pdf warning), compared organic versus non-organic food “life cycles” and concludes that in some circumstances organic agriculture can be more detrimental to the environment than conventional agriculture.

Buying organic and local foods is not necessarily better for the environment, according to a new life-cycle assessment examining the environmental impacts of food from cultivation to consumption.

The report (pdf warning) by researchers at the Manchester Business School was conducted for the U.K. environment agency Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Among its conclusions, the team finds that organic farming can use more land and release more nutrients to local water sources than conventional agriculture, and can have a larger carbon footprint. But the researchers also say that no clear-cut answer is readily available for this complex comparison.

Updated: So much for YouTube. Here is the original file.

Hinchey.wmv

This Newsday article, Interest in sewers no longer buried, discusses the role sewage plays in limiting development in Suffolk county; not specifically related to Upstate New York, but it has some interesting facts about development, public works and planning that are interesting.  The take-home message:

The mathematics of sewage…trumps all zoning. The greater their output, the less [developers] can build on an acre of unsewered land, no matter what local planners say.

You have to love these “The end of..” pronouncement titles like “The end of garbage”. (OK. It got my attention.)

The surprising thing is that a number of companies (and cities) have adopted the “goal” at least of zero waste: everything is reused or recycled.

San Francisco and Wal-Mart do not have much in common, but there is this: Both have a goal of achieving zero waste.

So do cities and towns from Boulder and Carrboro, N.C., to Buenos Aires and Canberra, as well as a surprising number of businesses, including Toyota, Nike, and Xerox. They’re making headway: Toyota has eliminated all the waste from its 5,000-employee U.S. headquarters near Los Angeles. Governments, meanwhile, are stepping in to regulate the disposal of computers, cellphones, and packaging.

...thinkers such as entrepreneur Paul Hawken, consultant Amory Lovins, and architect William McDonough have called [this] the Next Industrial Revolution. They want industry to mimic biology, where one species’ excrement is another’s food.

Like NYCO, I really resented the switch to daylight savings time this year. It just felt wrong and the fact that the earlier change was coupled with an energy bill smelled of BS. Well, I came across this Economists View which seems to confirm that the energy savings is nonsense. And I liked this letter to the editor they quoted:

Besides affecting the mood of many people, of which I am one, how does daylight saving time (and using electricity for an extra hour in the morning) cut usage? Consuming less at night but more in the morning does not save electric power. Dark is dark no matter when it comes.

From the Rochester D & C

The Big Boxes are getting a makeover.

Developers and municipalities are working more closely together to create buildings that blend in with the community.

A Wal-Mart superstore…where a tan-and-brown stone and brick façade has replaced Wal-Mart’s traditional blue-and-gray design.

Other recent stores in Brighton, Greece and Henrietta, among others, were designed with more flair, as dictated by planning boards….

In ecology this is called this “mimicry” – but what type of mimic would the Wal-Marts and the Wal-Greens be? Hmmmm….

1. Batesian mimics, where the mimic resembles the successful species but does not share the attribute that discourages predation…
   
2. Müllerian mimics, where the mimic resembles the successful species…
   
3. Mertensian mimics, where harmless and deadly mimics resemble a dangerous but not usually deadly species.
   

4. Peckhamian mimics, where the mimic resembles a harmless species in order to lure prey.

   I’m going with 4.

The development of alternative energy and biofuels in Central New York has garnered alot of attention lately. Of course anything to spark our lagging regional economy is met with excitement, but these trends obviously extend globally.

Bush’s Latin American tour for instance turned a spotlight on biofuels as a new ethanol development pact was made with Brazil on Friday.

Bush and Brazilian President said increasing alternative fuel use will lead to more jobs, a cleaner environment and greater independence from the oil market. (Bush to Sign Ethanol Fuel Pact in Brazil: Toronto Daily News)

The question becomes, what does this mean for domestic ethanol development?

The Economists has a good short article or some additional background on Brazil’s ethanol boom and Bush’s “Ethanol diplomacy”.

The United States, for its part, has several reasons to encourage ethanol production in Latin America….it will need seven times more of the stuff than it currently produces to meet Mr Bush’s 35 billion-gallon target. There simply is not enough spare land in America to grow adequate feedstock for such an amount, unless scientists find a way to make ethanol cheaply from abundant materials such as wood or grass. Although Mr Bush’s ultimate goal is energy independence, he would presumably prefer to be dependent on ethanol from friendly countries such as Brazil and Colombia than on oil from hostile places like Iran and Venezuela.

Of course not everyone is happy with this strategy. The National Farmers Union, for example, sees the ethanol pact as “the wrong step in the wrong direction at the wrong time” as a result of the negative impacts on farms involved with ethanol production here in the U.S.

The growing demand for ethanol will liekly have other agricultural impacts down the line as well.

There are many more issues here to discuss; but the basic economics of ethanol development is essential to understanding the problems. To this end I would strongly recommend listening to this audio story from the Economist:

You get about 14 times as much energy out as you put in, and you can grow trees on marginal land that is not agricultural land…There would be all sorts of benefits, both environmentally and from the energy-balance point of view.

This is driving force behind the research at SUNY-ESF.

But will the ESF Willows really be enough? As important as this research is, it will be a drop in the bucket of the US energy balance. And the drive to produce more ethanol globally may have far-reaching consequences that need to be considered carefully.

From the Poughkeepsie Journal:

By taking measures to reduce waste, save electricity or switch to renewable power, businesses are saving money in the long run.

“It really is an absolute myth to think that environmentally sound procedures are going to cost more over time,” said Manna Jo Greene, environmental action director at Hudson River Sloop Clearwater Inc., an organization dedicated to helping the local environment.

Greene added that while installing environmentally sound technology might be expensive, the savings they produce far outweigh the costs.

Full article: Owners take green steps

Bill McKibben latest book ‘Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future’ was released this month and is definitely something I look forward to. Here is some comments from a positive review in the LA Times:

“Deep economy” is a riff on “deep ecology,” a philosophical and scientific perspective that views humankind as but one species in the grand web of life. Ecology, of course, refers to the intricate pattern of relations between living entities and their environment. We most often use the word “economy” to refer to “the structure of economic life,” to quote Webster’s. But economy derives from the Greek word oikonomia, which translates as “household manager.” The archaic definition for economy, therefore, is management of a household. The second definition is “thrifty and efficient use of material resources.” The latter is the exact opposite, as Bill McKibben so vividly illustrates, of today’s growth-focused global economy…

The answer (or antithesis to the global economy) is the “deep economy” which is fundamentally, a local (bioregional) economy:

“When you go to the farmers’ market, in other words, you’re not just acquiring tomatoes, you’re making friends.” This is the “economics of neighborliness,” which fosters that all-important sense of connection and responsibility to one another and to the planet. With the farmers’ market as the nucleus, McKibben constructs his paradigm for community economics, which he believes can liberate us from an impersonal economic system grown malevolent and enable us to reduce fossil fuel use and slow global warming.

Local economies rooted in potentially self-sufficient communities (as alternatives to our current immense and unwieldy system) make good sense. As the saying goes, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Of course, energy is the overarching challenge. Can we localize energy? Can we establish viable and durable substitutes for fossil fuels? Solar and wind power in enlightened Vermont are encouraging, but they comprise mere drops in the bucket.

That is the title of an essay by Jon Rynn of the Sanders Research Associates and a thesis I clearly agree with: The Economy is an Ecosystem. (I’ve reprinted the entire article below since the site requires registration – though it is free!) The idea of course is meant more as a metaphor than a strict ecological interpretation of our economic system. Rynn attempt to “lay bare the foundation of neoclassical economics” and finds surprisingly, “pipes” or mechanical thinking. The metaphor of the ecosystem presents a more holistic view of the economy and is not meant to replace or disprove classical economy theory.

However that the economy is an ecosystem is slightly more than a metaphor as well. It points to the reality that our culture, businesses, our industries, etc. are part of and dependent on the natural ecosystem. (Destroy the economy and nature will continue; destroy nature, and there is no economy). But this is more than an observation; it also brings into light important ways economies are arranged. For instance as Rynn points out economic systems develop trophic levels similar to ecosystems. And at the fundamental trophic level of a functioning economy is manufacturing.

Rynn probably explains it better…

Read the rest of this entry »

A conflict is brewing over the Seneca Army Depot in Romulus and two different visions of economic development. And while I’m all in favor of developing alternative energy sources, I’m nonetheless pleased that there is a group vehemently advocating protecting this rare herd of white deer.

Group fears proposed biomass plant in Romulus would endanger herd
(The Post-Standard. Wednesday, March 07, 2007 By David L. Shaw.)

An unusual battle has shaped up in recent months between two environmentally friendly projects on the grounds of the former Seneca Army Depot in Romulus.

The stakes are preserving a rare herd of white deer on the depot’s grounds by establishing a conservation park, complete with safari-like eco-tours versus construction of an $85 million ethanol plant, accompanied by a $30 million biomass electricity production plant to help provide energy for the ethanol facility.

Some insist the two projects can operate side by side.

Others, particularly the white deer enthusiasts, say the two alternative energy plants, and the extra farming space they’d require, could prove disastrous for the deer herd.

Of course an ecologist might argue that the white deer is nothing more than a novelty. And an economist might say the same thing about ethanol (except alternative energy research enjoys bigger federal subsidies).

Update
Some more articles about this controversy.
From the Rochester D&C – Ethanol plant criticized

and the “Gray Lady” reports: Rare White Deer Versus Ethanol: Conservationists at Odds in Seneca

Sunday’s Post-Standard has some decent coverage on the local impacts of Global Warming on upstate New York. (I’ve copied the entire article by Delen Goldberg for archiving below). The print edition also has a half-page insert, “Central New York, Take Note” tabulating a range of local impacts due to global warming that is unfortunately not available on-line. It notes the impact of global warming on Lake-effect snow, lake thaws, ecological impacts on invasive species, insects, and birds, as well as hydroelectric power, agriculture (diary, fruit and wineries, Maple syrup) and human health.

And I’m sure this list is far from complete but most importantly it puts into relief that global warming is not just about warmer temperatures. There will be more to say on this subject especially when the IPCC releases the second part of its report on Global Warming that specifically addresses regional impacts based on “30,000 data sets from more than 70 international studies documenting changes to water circulation, to cryospheres (ice zones), as well as to flora and fauna over a period of at least 20 years.”

The main conclusion of the report is that climate change is already having a profound effect on all the continents and on many of the Earth’s ecosystems. The draft presents a long list of evidence:

Glacial lakes are increasing in both size and number, potentially leading to deadly floods

Permafrost in mountainous regions and at high latitudes is warming increasing the danger of land slides.

As the temperature of rivers and lakes rises, their thermal stratification and water quality is changing.

River currents, affected by melting glaciers and ice, are speeding up during the spring.

Springtime is starting earlier, causing plants to bloom earlier and changing the migrations of birds.

Many plants and animals are expanding their habitats into mountainous regions and higher latitudes that are becoming milder.

(from march 2, 2007 DER SPIEGEL)

Thermal stratification! Hey there’s our Oneida Lake “dead zones”! And with that….

Local warming
Sunday, March 04, 2007
By Delen Goldberg
Staff writer

A melting Arctic ice cap. Droughts in Africa. Rising sea levels. Since the late 1980s, the effects of global warming have been the stuff of dramatic images and scary predictions.

Now, the predictions are coming true, and new facts are emerging daily to support scientists theories. Many of them are emerging in our own backyard.

In Central New York, plants are blooming earlier. Lake-effect snow is pummeling the region in record amounts. Fish and birds are dying in Lake Ontario, of diseases previously not found in the state.

Scientists blame the local changes on global warming and say they are the reason people are sitting up and taking notice of an issue once seriously discussed only by academics and environmentalists.

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “has concluded for the first time that global warming is “unequivocal” and that human activity is the main driver, “very likely” causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950” (February 3, 2007, NY Times). Predictably the report has generated controversy from both the scientific community and global warming deniers.

The Ithacan has an article, “Melting the Myth” with some local institutional reaction to the IPCC report:

David Wolfe, professor of horticulture at Cornell University, studies how climate change impacts ecosystems. He said his scientific colleagues on East Hill and across the globe are trained to be inherently skeptical, but “it’s hard to imagine anybody with a strong background in the sciences not becoming fairly convinced of the data at this point.”
It’s difficult to reach a consensus among so many scientists with different views, Jason Hamilton, assistant professor of biology at the college, said of the IPCC’s findings. Though he said the report is what it should be, Hamilton believes the problems of global warming are even more consequential than the IPCC warns.

And with regards to our upstate New York:

Effects of global warming can be seen in upstate New York, and coming years will bring more extreme temperatures and less-stable weather patterns to the area, Hamilton said.

Through his own research of regional plant life, Wolfe has documented earlier bloom dates for plants like apple trees, grape vines and lilac bushes. Exterminators are having to put out traps and pesticides on farms earlier in the year as insect pests show up earlier and in bigger numbers.

“We are already seeing in our own region some evidence that it’s not just the thermometers that are telling us it’s warming in our area,” Wolfe said. “It’s actually the living world that is responding.”